Back of the net bets

Premier League fans may turn their noses up at League two but the Sky game on Monday night could be a real belter.  Charlton are on top of the table and have scored 15 goals in winning their last five games.  Huddersfield lie 3rd are unbeaten in a Football League record 43 games.

So far this season Charlton have only played three home fixtures against teams in the top half, drawing two of those and winning one.  Huddersfield have played four away games against the same group, winning two and drawing two, scoring eight and conceding only one.  That suggests that Huddersfield may have a slight edge in terms of class and with Charlton missing captain Johnnie Jackson, the odds against a home win are not so attractive at 2.50.

Charlton’s last win was 1-0 against Brentford, a side that Huddersfield beat 4-0 at Griffin Park already this season.

The pressure of the unbeaten run may have contributed to eight draws form the 18 games played so far this season but odds of 3.00 about an away win still look like good value.  It may pay to look at the In play markets for a profit taking opportunity as well.  Huddersfield have scored first in 12 of their last 15 away games.

A cautious approach which may natch the team’s if things are tight entering the final quarter could be to bet in the (0) Asian Handicap market where you get your stake back if the game is drawn.  The odds are 2.15.

A win for City tonight will guarantee their place in the knock out phase of the Champions’ League. The same result for Napoli would put their fate in their own hands.

City have only lost once in seven games against Italian opponents while Napoli have only won once against English sides. They have yet to concede at home to English opponents but that will surely be tested against a City side that has scored an average of 3.67 goals in nine straight wins since September.

None of the three potential match outcomes are impossible but there is not enough in any of the 1X2 prices to tempt me.

2.00 about three goals or more looks value for two exciting sides both at full strength and a little on a 2-2 or 3-3 draw at combined odds of around 15.0 will keep you watching.

Last season both games between these two sides finished 2-1 to Spurs.  Van de Vaart scored all four of the london sides goals while Marc Albrighton netted the two for Villa. 

Lightning might not strike a third time but this is a fixture that has tended to be tight.  In the last 21 meetings only once has it been decided by more than a single goal. 

Tottenham should have the upper hand again.  They have won the last three meetings and are unbeaten in five against the visitors.  Recent form gives them an edge as well.  They have won seven of their last eight Premier League games.  Villa have drawn four of their last five away.

The odds against a home win are short enough given Villa’s tenacity and I would prefer take odds of around 3.80 about the home side coming through by a one goal winning margin.

Man City Vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm

The two unbeaten sides in the Premier league meet in the main event on Saturday.  Man City have been blowing opponents away while newcastle have the best defensive record in the top flight conceding only eight goals.  Kompany’s return suggests City are unlikely to start leaking goals but Newcastle have scored at lease two in five of their last six league games.  City have scored three or more in each of their last five so those figures point towards goals.

City have a very strong record against the visitors of late, winning seven and drawing two of the last nine.  This means that the odds against a Newcastle win, at 11.0, are big but not quite big enough.

My bet on the game would be on +3.5 goals at odds of 2.50.

Wigan Vs Blackburn, Saturday 3pm

I know it’s crazy in November but this really does shape up as a game which neither side can afford not to win.  Wigan have lost nine straight and Blackburn are without a win in six.

Each sides leading goalscorer has only three to their name but if one side gets in front it could be caution to the wind.  The sides have generated 20 goals in their last six meetings so there is plenty of history of high scoring.  Injuries to Samba and the suspension of Alcaraz mean both defences will be a little unsettled and that also plays well towards a bet of +2.5 goals at odds of 2.00.  I fancy a chancier bet combining a 2-1, 3-1 or 3-2 win for either side at combined odds of 3.00.  Fasten your seatbelts….

West Brom Vs Wigan, Saturday 3pm

Bolton are the only Premier League side yet to draw a game this season.  That kind of run never lasts for long and the history between these sides points firmly towards a share of the spoils.  Seven of their ten meetings in the top flight have benn drawn and five of the last six at the Hawthorns.  Bolton are likely to keep faith with the side we predicted would beat Stoke two weeks ago and that same group should be good enough to get something, though not everything from their trip.  The odds against a draw are 3.55.

Enjoy the weekend!

Newcastle Vs Everton, Saturday 1245 Live on Sky

Both sides have won two of the last six meetings and drawn the other two.  They each won at each others place last season and will be well matched.  Its a tough game to call with both sides having less than 50 % possession in their games this season and could go any of the three ways.  Everton have conceded goals late in games this campaign while Newcastle have two late goals at home, both in the last ten minutes and the best bet may be to go for goals with three or more worth a go at odds of 2.10.

QPR Vs Man City, Saturday 5.30 Live on ESPN

City are a class apart at the moment. They have scored at least twice in every League game so far while Rangers have struggled to find the net at home with only three goals to show for their efforts.  Odds against City winning by two or more goals is a fair bet.

Bolton Vs Stoke, Sunday

Bolton have been dire at home but have a great chance of recovering form against a Stoke side that has conceded nine in their last three on the road and have lost three times this season on the weekend following Europa League games.  They do not have the strength of squad of others in Europe and Bolton look overpriced at odds of around 2.35.

Man City’s trip to Villarreal tonight is a must win game in what has proven to be a tough group for the team of the season so far.  It took until the 90^th minute to secure their first Champions’ League win, against Villarreal in the last round of games and City lie third going into the game behind Napoli and Bayern Munich.

They have scored at least two goals in every domestic game this season and are a joy to watch at present.  Their hosts on the other hand are pointless in Europe and are missing not one, two or three but their four top goal scorers from last term. Rossi, Cani, Nilmar and Ruben’s absence makes it hard to see where a goal will come from.

The Mestalla remains a fearsome venue all the same and only three times in the last three seasons have they conceded more than two goals at home.

A City win is a 1.70 chance but I’d prefer to go with a 1-0 or 2-0 win at combined odds of 3.50. If you are wary of an early home goal like the last time the sides met, a City winning margin by one or two goals at a combined 2.10 could be your best bet.

Bayern Munich have never beaten Napoli, having played three times and each of their last three defeats in Europe have been to Italian teams.  Current form though suggests they can be backed with confidence tonight.

They have won their last five at home in the Bundesliga by an aggregate score of 23-0 and have conceded only three goals in the domestic league all season.  Napoli have been inconsistent mixing a 3-0 win at Inter Milan with defeats against Chievo, Catania and Parma.

Munich are 1.33 to win but you can bet at odds of 2.50 by limiting that win to 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 and still take 2.08 by including 4-0, though the last time Napoli conceded four was in September 2009.